Forum - Forex Robots PRO

What does the data mean to the market? The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buy on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD. NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. With UR a lower number is good for the US and vice versa. Whereas AE a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa. All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE. Historic deviations and their outcome April 2 2021 A very large deviation to the upside, but accompanied by conflicting Average Earnings, created a whipsaw that we don't like to see. This, therefore, did not hit our triggers and for good reason! See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=35213;t=2021-4-2%2012:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1 March 5 2021 +197k positive deviation with no conflicts. The move was great on USDJPY! I don't trade stocks, but for those that do, look how they reacted, which was the opposite of the USD value. Better employment numbers suggest a tightening of monetary policy, which is not good for the stock market! See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33099;t=2021-3-5%2013:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1 February 5 2021 - 56k negative deviation on headline number but conflicting Unemployment and Average Earnings, However, USDJPY went in the direction of the headline number on this occasion. It wasn't a trade for me! See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28009;t=2021-2-5%2013:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1 I will use forecasts of: Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0 Change in NonFarm Payrolls 1000 Unemployment Rate 5.8 Today's trade plan Today the forecast range is far larger than last month, so we must be aware of that. If we see 300k deviations in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings, we can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted. Tradable pairs USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome March 18 2021 +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too! See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34208;t=2021-3-18%2011:0:00.0;s=USDTRY;r=S10 December 24 2020 +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=25738;t=2020-12-24%2011:0:00.0;s=EURTRY;r=M1 October 22 2020 -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=23557;t=2020-10-22%2011:0:00.0;s=EURTRY;r=M1 I will use forecasts of: Benchmark Rate 19 Today's trade plan 24 economists all forecasts today for the rate to stay at 19% Last time there was an unexpected hike in rates, President Erdogan sacked the central bank governor. Today is the first policy announcement from the new governor Sahap Kavcioglu, who's under pressure to cut rates. So far, he has signalled he won't cut yet but let's see! Realistically the only feasible outcome from today is a possible cut. So if we get a deviation of 1.0 or more, we can expect a continued and prolonged weakening in TRY pairs. Tradable pairs EURTRY USDTRY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome May 7 2020 A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00% March 20 2020 A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25% See Chart here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/27738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI3NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0yMCUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ. March 13 2020 An emergency cut of 0.50% to 1.0% interest rate due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant impact on the economy. This the first cut to interest rates since 2016 The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic began to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts. Due to the unprecedented times, this is the first in a series of emergency cuts, which resulted in minimal price action. Usually, we would see hundreds of pips if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020, which I'm glad to say is now behind us, and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released. See Chart Here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/16296/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2Mjk2O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xMyUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ.. I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate Decision 0.0 Today's trade plan I will set up for any deviation on this trade, although I expect a no-trade as 100% of economists predict no chance of a change in today's rate. However, if a surprise did happen, I would be devastated I wasn't ready. Tradable pairs EURNOK USDNOK Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.